Who Will Win (and Who Should Win) At the 2026 Tony Awards

I’m back! For those of you just joining, my name is Miren. I’m a teenager born and raised in Manhattan who absolutely loves Broadway, and here on Encore By Miren, I share my unfiltered takes on the latest shows, interview people from the industry (coming soon!!) and give you a look at Broadway from the perspective of an

NYC teen!

Last year, we had one of the best seasons on Broadway in a long time, so it made sense for the Tony's to be equally as competitive: Sunset Blvd, Suffs, Oh Mary!, and of course Maybe Happy Ending!

The 2026 Tony nominations are officially out, (THE TONY’S ARE TOMORROW?) and we need to discuss them! Let’s look at the biggest ones this year, and do some Tony predictions (yes, I will be content farming off of the Tony’s). Today, we’re looking at: best new musical, play, revivals, and lead actor/actress! 

Best New Musical & Best New Play

Starting off with Best Musical. 

The nominees are Lost Boys, Schmigadoon!, Titanique, and Two Strangers Carry a Cake Across New York. I am telling you right now, Lost Boys is definitely going to win. Two Strangers and Titanique are both cute, but they just aren't Tony winning material. Honestly, even Two Strangers has a better shot than Titanique because of how unhinged the plot of Titanique is…what would you even be giving it a Tony for?

For Best Play, we've got The Balusters, Giant, Liberation, and Little Bear Ridge Road. 

I think Giant is going to take it. I honestly didn’t like Giant that much, (hot take, I know!) I just felt that it was very long and boring and in all just not as deep as it wanted to be (review coming soon!). I liked Liberation a lot more, (and hope it wins!) It was entertaining, but it made one lethal mistake: it’s a show about feminism, meaning most men are already not going to want to see it—and it has one scene where all of the women are completely naked. Because of that, they cut off a huge portion of their audience. Also, because of that scene, you had to put your phone in a Yondr pouch where you literally couldn't use it for 2 and a half hours. I really hope Liberation wins because it was great, but I’m still guessing that they’ll give the Tony to Giant. 

The Revival Categories (Aka this year’s Bloodbath)

Best Revival of a Musical is down to Ragtime, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, and The Rocky Horror Show. Ragtime is the winner 100%. I know people are completely glazing Cats right now and saying it's the best show on Broadway, but the hype is legitimately insane. I mean I’m biased because I haven’t seen it, (and don’t like Cats the musical, sorry Andrew Lloyd Webber!) Rocky Horror show is fun, but again, it’s just not that deep. And don’t kill me for this everyone but I still haven’t seen Ragtime! (I know I NEED to go 😭)

Now, Best Revival of a Play is easily the most competitive category this year. Let’s look at the lineup:

 Becky Shaw (Yeah, no one is voting for this)

 Fallen Angels (I don’t think so) 

 Every Brilliant Thing

 Oedipus

 Death of a Salesman

I didn’t get to see Oedipus before its limited run ended, but I wanted to so badly!

As much as I absolutely loved Every Brilliant Thing, the category is just too competitive for it to win. I think it’s a tight race between Death of a Salesman and Oedipus, and I am crossing my fingers for Death of a Salesman because it is so deep and honestly one of the best Broadway shows I have ever seen. If you haven't seen it yet, you PLEASEEE need to go (review coming soon for this too!!) 

The Lead Acting Categories

For Best Leading Actor in a Musical, we have Nicholas Christopher (Chess),  Luke Evans (Rocky Horror), Sam Tutty (Two Strangers), and BOTH Joshua Henry and Brandon Uranowitz for Ragtime. Two noms for Ragtime is insane! In my opinion, Sam Tutty from Two Strangers and Luke Evans are out before the competition even starts. Both shows are good, but too light to win a Tony. It’s definitely between the Ragtime guys and Nicholas Christopher. The Tony press has been profiling Joshua Henry like crazy, so he’s definitely in the running, but I’m going to be real: I think Nicholas Christopher is going to win. Ragtime is already taking Best Revival, so Chess will probably get the spotlight.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical is way less competitive than last year. The Nicole Scherzinger vs. Audra McDonald last year was insane…I knew Nicole would win, but Audra in Gypsy was incredible. Though honestly, Joy Woods was the real standout for me. I saw it in previews and during the final scene, a button literally fell off her top during the strip routine! They just laughed it off, she was so good.

This year, the nominees are Sarah Chase (Schmigadoon!), Stephanie Hsu (Rocky Horror), Cassie Levy (Ragtime), Marla Mindelle (Titanique), and Christiani Pitts (Two Strangers). Schmigadoon! is basically a mockery of Broadway, and comedies just don't win these because they aren't really deep enough. Marla Mindelle was good as Celine Dion, but the role isn't deep enough for a Tony, and the same goes for Christiani Pitts. Caissie Levy is definitely taking this home for Ragtime!

Moving on to Best Leading Actress in a Play, the nominees are: Rose Byrne (Fallen Angels), Carrie Coon (Bug), Susannah Flood (Liberation), Lesley Manville (Oedipus), and Kelli O'Hara (Fallen Angels). I was super surprised to see 2 nominees for Fallen Angels? I haven’t seen it, and unfortunately won’t be able to (since it closes June 7th 😭). I had never heard of it until like a few weeks ago when I was on my way to see The Lost Boys for the first time (fyi PLEASE run to the palace and see The Lost Boys it is one of the best things on Broadway right now and I do not say that lightly!) When I passed the marquee for Fallen Angels, I did a double take and was like “what is this??” I had to look it up and sure enough, it has 5 Tony nominations?! How had I never heard of this? Especially since I am a HUGE fan of the Gilded Age (on HBO max), I really don’t know how I could’ve missed yet another show with a Gilded Age star? 

Also, I’m super happy to see Carrie Coon was nominated! I also didn’t get to see BUG, but I wish her luck! I would love if Liberation or BUG won, (I loved Susannah Flood!), but I think Lesley Manville in Oedipus will take this one (unfortunately). 

Finally, our last category is Best Leading Actor in a Play! The nominees are: Will Harrison for Punch, Nathan Lane for Death of a Salesman, John Lithgow for Giant, Daniel Radcliffe for Every Brilliant Thing, and Mark Strong for Oedipus. As mediocre as I found Giant, I think it’s up between John Lithgow and Nathan Lane for Death of a Salesman. I would love to see Daniel Radcliffe win (he’s honestly the nicest person ever and an incredible actor!) again, I can’t give Every Brilliant Thing enough compliments, but I thought that Nathan Lane was INCREDIBLE in Death of a Salesman. This is truly the best show of the season. It’s so heartbreaking and there in all of the ways Giant was lacking. I am hoping that Nathan Lane takes this Tony, but I think John Lithgow still has a chance. I think he did a good job playing Roald Dahl, and overall the show wasn’t terrible, but I just don’t think it leaves you thinking the same way Death of a Salesman does. 

Anyway, those are all the big categories!

What do you guys think? Who got snubbed, and who are you rooting for? Comment your predictions below!